:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Nov 02 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. Region 4564 (N04E29, Cro/beta)
produced an impulsive C1.1 flare at 01/1236 UTC, the strongest of the
period. The region was in a phase of gradual decay over the past 24
hours.

Other activity included eruptive activity along a filament channel in
the NW quadrant beginning after ~01/1500 UTC. Subsequent SOHO/LASCO C2
coronagraph imagery contained a slow-moving CME signature beginning at
01/1848 UTC. Additional imagery is needed to analyze the event for any
Earth-directed components.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a chance for
isolated C-class flares through 04 Nov.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak
flux of 5350pfu observed at 01/1550 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton
flux remained steady at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at high
levels through 04 Nov. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected
to continue at background levels through 04 Nov.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected the continued influence of a positive
polarity CH HSS. Total magnetic field strength gradually declined from a
peak of 9 nT to ~5 Bt at the end of the UT day. The Bz component reached
a brief maximum southward deflection of -7 nT early in the period. Solar
wind speeds gradually declined from ~575 km/s to ~460 km/s over the past
24 hours. Phi angle transitioned from mostly positive to variable after
01/0742 UTC.

.Forecast...
Enhanced solar wind conditions are likely to continue through 02 Nov due
to waning positive polarity CH HSS influence. A return to mostly nominal
conditions is expected over 03-04 Nov.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field reached G1 (Minor) storm levels early in the
period due to positive polarity CH HSS influences.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is likely to reach unsettled levels on 02 Nov,
with mostly quiet conditions likely on 03-04 Nov, as CH HSS influence
wanes.